Housing prices could dip by as much as 20% in more than 180 markets nationwide if the US economy falls deeper into a recession, according to a new study.
Experts at the research firm Moody’s Analytics said that homes in 183 of the 413 largest regional housing markets in the country are “overvalued” by more than 25%.
A map based on data from Moody’s was published by Fortune. It showed that home prices were poised to fall in so-called “bubbly” markets like Phoenix and Boise.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, told Fortune that he believes housing prices in the US will either remain the same or fall by as much as 5%.
The adjusted forecast is in contrast to earlier predictions which held that housing prices would remain unchanged over the next 12 months.
If the US falls deeper into a recession, home prices could drop by as much as 10%, according to Moody’s.
The firm believes that the Boise market is overvalued by 72% while homes in Charlotte are overvalued by 66%.
Moody’s analysts say that the Austin, Texas real estate market is 61% above its true value.
The forecast is much more pessimistic than other reports, including those from the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CoreLogic, and Zillow — all of which are predicting a single-digit rise in home prices.
But other agencies have echoed Moody’s. Fitch Ratings said it envisions US home prices dropping by up to 15%.
Robert Shiller, the noted economist who correctly predicted the 2008 housing crash, thinks there’s a good chance home prices could fall by more than 10%.
Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said last week that the recent slump in the housing market is “still nowhere near the bottom, especially for prices.”
His forecast came after existing home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million units in July, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales have fallen for six straight months and have hit their lowest level since May 2020.
The slump has coincided with a surge in mortgage rates over the last year, which compounded the affordability challenge for would-be homebuyers facing steep sale prices.
Additional reporting by Thomas Barrabi